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Highlights

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General highlights
Over the last two years, both in Quebec and in the rest of Canada, salary projections have been close to actual increases recorded for the economy as a whole. This can be explained by a return to a measure of economic stability after the turbulence employers of all sizes in all industries experienced in 2008-2009.

The firms surveyed anticipate increases of around 3% in Quebec and the other Canadian provinces in 2013, an optimistic forecast given that inflation and the average salary increase hasn’t topped 2.3% in 2012. What’s more, major banks and economic organizations peg the inflation rate at between 1.9% and 2.0% for Quebec and for Canada as a whole.

Nonetheless, this optimism corresponds to the latest results published in the quarterly newsletter Flash-Emploi by the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés. In the third quarter of 2012, Quebec human resources professionals expected salary increases to follow the inflation rate for the last 12 months, i.e. 2.4%. This marked a departure from the trend noted during three consecutive semesters when they clearly indicated that salaries wouldn’t be tied to inflation, which was set at 3.0% for 2011 as a whole. In short, it is to be hoped that this renewed optimism signals strong and lasting growth for workers.

Quebec
For all employment categories combined, the average salary increase expected in Quebec amounts to 2.9%, i.e., half a percentage point (pt %) higher than the 2012 forecast.

The transportation and warehousing sectors top the list at 3.9%, followed by construction (3.7%) and professional, scientific and technical services (3.5%). At the other end of the scale, the public sector can expect increases to be around one percentage point lower, particularly in public administration (2.5%) and education and healthcare (2.7%). Manufacturing (2.7%) and the wholesale and retail trade (2.6%) can also expect lower increases than average.

Projected salary increases vary very little between employment categories. For all industries combined, the average difference is two tenths of a percentage point (pt %) between the professions that can expect the highest increase (senior executives at 3.0%) and those than can expect the lowest (administrative and technical employees at 2.8%). At 4.8%, senior executives in the transportation and warehousing sector are slated for the highest average increase for a given category of professionals. Conversely, administrative and technical employees in the wholesale and retail trade can expect to see only half this increase (2.4%).

At 2.3% points, the total gap between minimum and maximum increases per job category is higher for senior executives than for the two other categories (1.3%-1.4%), reflecting the stronger link between executive compensation and the variable growth expected in these different sectors.

Canada
For Canada as a whole, the average salary increase anticipated for all categories of employment is 2.9%, a figure very close to the 2.8% forecast for 2012.

While the variability of salary projections is low for Quebec, it is even lower for Canada overall. The primary sector, which includes gas and oil exploration (3.3%), is the only one to exceed the average 3%. As in Quebec, the other Canadian provinces can expect salary increases in the public sector to be slightly lower than the overall average, particularly in education and healthcare (2.7%) and public administration (2.6%).

Here again, the difference between types of employment is slight, amounting to two tenths of a percentage point (% pt) between categories. Even across all sectors, the disparity between the minimum and maximum increases projected remains under one percentage point (% pt).

 
Summary Table

2013 salary projections for Quebec and the rest of Canada
Average results of surveys by participating firms

  QUEBEC CANADA
All employment categories 2.9% 2.9%
Senior executives Managers and
professionals
Administrative
and technical
employees
Senior executives Managers and
professionals
Administrative
and technical
employees

Industry

           
Total, by employment category 3.0 % 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.8%
Primary sector (agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, mining and oil and gas extraction) 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%
Utilities 3.0% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0%
Construction 3.7% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0% 3.1% 2.8%
Manufacturing 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%
Wholesale and retail trade 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8%
Transportation and warehousing 4.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8%
Finance, insurance and real estate 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Professional, scientific and technical services 3.8% 3.4% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
Education and healthcare services 3.0% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6%
Information and culture industries 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7%
Other, including accommodation and food services 2.8% 3.1% 3.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
Public administration 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.5%
This summary table presents the average salary increase forecasts provided by the participating firms' surveys, including zeros. Each firm compiled its forecasts by sector and overall. When the results from one sector were not specifically included in the figures of a given firm, the average of all the businesess surveyed by the firm was used.

The following firms participated in the survey: Normandin Beaudry, Mercer, Tower Watson, Hay Group, Aon Hewitt, Morneau Shepell and Saucier Conseil.

Source : Prévisions salariales 2013

 

Droits réservés 2017, Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines et en relations industrielles agréés du Québec.

 


Affaires RH Fondation CRHA Les relations du travail au Québec - Des témoins tracent la ligne du temps Objectif CRHA Prévention de la violence au travail