Findings of the third quarter 2011 employment outlook survey

The third Flash-Emploi CRHA released by the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés indicates that the employment outlook should continue to be positive for Quebec workers over the next few months. According to the study’s four indices, the general job market climate remains favourable.  

This quarterly survey, conducted in collaboration with Analysis Group, economic, financial and strategy consultants, reflects how HR professionals expect the Quebec job market to develop in the near future. This time, 346 HR professionals representing a total of over 204,000 employees were surveyed.

Hiring should continue to rise over the summer; 40% of respondents expect employee numbers to increase in the next three months, versus only 3% who think they will decline. This net difference amounts to +37.2% or three percentage points more than the previous quarter (+34.2%). Expectations are lower in the regions, particularly in Quebec City (+21%) and Montérégie (+33%), versus +46% in Montreal. This trend confirms that reported by the Bank of Canada in its July Business Outlook Survey.

Even though recruitment efforts are down in comparison to the previous quarter, they still remain significant. In fact, the survey shows that 39.1% of respondents believe they will have to step up their recruitment efforts, compared to 56.7% in the last quarter.

“This decrease can be explained by a number of seasonal factors such as the greater availability of students, production slowdowns in some organizations, and the fact that businesses are generally less inclined to create new jobs in the summer months,” commented Florent Francoeur, CHRP, Ordre president and CEO. 

However, the outlook for wage increases is currently less optimistic. HR advisors have noted a sharp rise in the inflation rate and are accordingly cautious about economic growth. Some 13.1% of those interviewed anticipate that pay increases will be higher than inflation in the coming year, versus 37.5% who think they will be lower, creating a net difference of -24.4%. This equals a difference of -46.4 percentage points compared to the last quarter.

“In general, companies hesitate to change their pay scales to adjust to inflation. If inflation stays as high in the coming months, workers’ buying power could be affected,” pointed out Francoeur.

Click here for the complete report (in French only).

For an interview with Florent Francoeur, please contact Caroline Soulas.

Methodology
The indices presented in this quarterly newsletter are based on responses to a survey conducted from June 22 to July 6, 2011 among a random sample of members of the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés (CRHA). In all, 346 respondents participated in this survey, representing a margin of error of 5.2%, 19 times out of 20. In the case of organizations with a number of Ordre members, only the response of the main HR manager was retained. The responses were weighted according to the size of the organization and were not seasonally adjusted. The total percentages may not always equal 100% due to rounding of values. The survey methodology and its analysis were developed and carried out by Analysis Group, economic, financial and strategy consultants (www.groupedanalyse.ca).

About the Ordre
With close to 8,500 members, the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés is the fifth largest association of its kind in the world. It is the only organization in Quebec mandated to award human resources professionals a title certifying their competency.  

The Ordre is a leader in employee management practices. Committed to innovation, it supports the ongoing development of human resources professionals (CHRPs) and industrial relations counsellors (CIRCs), thus helping to maintain a healthy balance between employee well-being and organizational success. It is vigilant in ensuring that this multifaceted function promotes leading-edge solutions that address the major issues impacting the workforce.

Through its actions in the public arena, the Ordre contributes to the advancement and reputation of the profession and plays a key influential role in the world of work in Quebec.