2010 salary forecasts: employers remain cautious – Findings of a study commissioned by the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés

Employers remain cautious for 2010. They are prepared to agree to an average salary increase of 2.57% in Québec and 2.67% across Canada, marking a record ten-year low, even though these projections remain above the inflation rate. These are the findings of a survey commissioned for the Ordre des conseillers en ressources humaines agréés released this morning at the Ordre’s annual meeting on compensation, Rendez-vous de la rémunération.

This major study presents the results of a survey conducted among 2,507 organizations across Canada by eight of the country’s most prestigious compensation consulting firms: Aon Conseil, Hay Group, Hewitt Associates in collaboration with Normandin Beaudry, Mercer, HR Consulting, Morneau Sobeco, Saucier Consulting, Towers Perrin and Watson Wyatt.

Employers’ 2010 forecasts for Quebec
The average salary increase in Quebec is expected to amount to 2.57%. “This figure is close to the 2.5% anticipated by employees in a CROP survey also released today, indicating that employers and employees appear to be on the same page,” commented Florent Francoeur, CHRP, Ordre president and CEO.

A first this year – salaries of senior executives, managers and professionals and technical and administrative employees are expected to increase at the same rate, very likely because of the current media focus on senior management’s compensation.

All signs indicate that public service employees will benefit most in 2010, with a projected average increase of 3.7%. At the other end of the scale, the workforce in the information and culture industries weighs in last with an average of only 1.3%.

Employers’ 2010 forecasts for Canada as a whole
According to the survey, at 2.67%, the average increase for Canada as a whole should be slightly higher than that projected for Quebec. Employees in the education sector are expected to top the list with an average of 3.32%.

Canada-wide, the agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting industries will see the lowest increase at an average 1.74%. Senior management in these industries will be most affected by this trend, with an average increase of 1.53% that places them well at the bottom of the ladder.

Finally, while cost control remains a major concern for employers in the coming year, they also plan to work on other total compensation issues such as their performance management and reward strategy, salary structure, job evaluation systems and pay equity.

“The organizations that will come out on top in the present environment are the ones that will be able to maintain a balance between compensation practices, employee needs and business objectives. Meeting this challenge will call for considerable expertise and skill, as they can’t afford to lose their talent,” concluded Florent Francoeur.

To learn more
A summary table of the survey on employers’ 2010 salary forecasts is presented in the appendix.

Summary table
Canada


Expected salary increases for 2010 (including zeros) according to surveys by participating firms
 
  Senior executives Managers and professionals Administrative and technical employees
  Average Average Average
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 1,53% 1,87% 1,83%
Mining and oil and gas extraction 3,08% 3,24% 3,14%
Utilities 3,2% 3,2% 3,2%
Construction 2,55% 2,65% 2,65%
Manufacturing 2,53% 2,55% 2,49%
Wholesale trade 2,7% 2,67% 2,57%
Retail trade 2,52% 2,48% 2,44%
Transportation and warehousing 1,95% 2,05% 2,15%
Information and culture industries 1,9% 1,8% 1,95%
Finance and insurance 2,63% 2,75% 2, 75%
Real estate 2,5% 3, 0% 3, 05%
Professional, scientific and technical services 2, 65% 2, 73% 2, 65%
Management of companies and enterprises n/a n/a n/a
Administration and support, waste management and remediation n/a n/a n/a
Educational services 3,25% 3,3% 3,4%
Health care and social assistance 3,2% 3,2% 3,2%
Recreation 3,0% 3,0% 3,0%
Accommodation and food services 2,65% 2,4% 2,25%
Other services 2,73% 2,7% 2,63%
Public administration 3,28% 2,88% 2,73%

Summary table
Quebec

Expected salary increases for 2010 (including zeros) according to surveys by participating firms

  Senior executives Managers and professionals Administrative and technical employees
  Average Average Average
Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 2,8% 2,6% 2,6%
Mining and oil and gas extraction 2,8% 2,8% 2,8%
Utilities 4,1% 3,6% 3, 4%
Construction n/a n/a n/a
Manufacturing 2,53% 2,43% 2,47%
Wholesale trade 2,4% 2,5% 2,17%
Retail trade 2,85% 2,8% 2,63%
Transportation and warehousing 2,0% 2,0% 2,0%
Information and culture industries 1,3% 1,3% 1,3%
Finance and insurance 2,83% 2,83% 2,86%
Real estate 2,9% 2,9% 2,87%
Professional, scientific and technical services 2,9% 2,6% 2,03%
Management of companies and enterprises n/a n/a n/a
Administration and support, waste management and remediation n/a n/a n/a
Educational services 3,0% 3,0% 2, 8%
Health care and social assistance 2,0% 2,0% 2,0%
Recreation 1,8% 1,8% 1,8%
Accommodation and food services n/a n/a n/a
Other services 2,7% 3,0% 3,0%
Public administration 3,25% 3,3% 2,85%